1. Next week, you should trade forex because of the US Presidential elections on Nov. 8. Simultaneously, these next few days are packed with major event risks: four monetary policy announcements (from Japan, US, Australia and the UK) and four employment reports(Canada, US, Germany, and New Zealand).
2. These will be some of the busiest days for Forex traders in the month of November. It is likely that we will see new multi-month and year high and lows. The GDP/USD is close to its 30 year low, USD/JPY may hit a new three-month high, while USD/CAD and USD/CHF may reach seven or eight-month highs. This week the Central-Bank rate decisions in November is expected to show no financial change, but investors will be paying close attention as these rates will set the expectations for next month’s potential moves.
3. This past week has been a great one for the U.S. dollar, excluding the unanticipated news that the FBI has reopened its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. Friday had a stronger than expected third-quarter GDP bringing optimism to the future. The U.S. dollar ended the week better than most other major currencies; USD/JPY went above 105, and USD/CAD crossed the 1.34 line. Thanks to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, softening labor and spending data, the U.S. rose over the past month.
4. The Pound suffered this week, and there’s a forecast for further damages to the Bank of England. This week is crucial for the Sterling because the latest UK PMI’s and Quarterly Inflation Report will be released. After Brexit, the PMI’s plummeted and then recovered months after. Now there’s a looming fear that this weakness will arise again. Although this past week’s consumer reports like consumer prices, employment, and GDP were up, retail sales were weak.
5. The U.S. Dollar will likely determine the Euro’s destiny. This EUR/USD have further dropped to a seven-month low. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Germany consumer prices have been rising in the past two years. According to PMI’s, job creations are the highest in the past five years. So be sure to be on the lookout for the third-quarter Eurozone GDP and Germany’s labor data.
6. Unfortunately, the Canadian dollar is currently the weakest of the three commodity currencies. With oil prices peaking and retail sales falling, the consumer prices are not making up for it. There’s mounting pressure on the currency because the Bank of Canada has not changed interest rates. Although Canadian employment, August GDP, and IVEY PMI reports will be released, the Canadian dollar is taking a back seat compared to all other major global currencies. On the other hand, the Australian dollar has been surprisingly resilient. We could possibly see stronger AUD/USD gains versus the Euro, the Swiss Franc, the Yen, and the Sterling.